Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years kindle ↠ Hardcover

kindle Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years

Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years kindle ↠ Hardcover ë ❰Read❯ ➲ Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years Author Vaclav Smil – Gwairsoft.co.uk Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways as a fatal discontinuity a sudden catastrophic event tFundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways as a fatal discontinuity a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing or as a persistent gradual trend Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions viral pandemics wars and large scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic environmental economic and political shifts that unfold over time In this provocative book scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide ranging interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring This is Fascinating analysis of trendsPredicting the future is still impossible but science has gotten much better at forecasting it at least to the extent that it is informed by statistics and probabilities Vaclav Smil speaks the truth as he sees it according to mathematical information and indications For instance he refutes the “peak oil” scenario but asserts that society’s transition to an economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel is long overdue environmentally and politically Smil predicted the financial meltdown and the flu pandemic so clearly he’s on to something He delves into a variety of issues in this analysis of trends and calamities from the economic decline of the US to conflicts in Muslim countries the aging of many national populations and the depletion of essential ecosystems getAbstract recommends this fascinating account of the future as seen through the cold eye of a statistician

Vaclav Smil Ë Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years pdf

Not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to and plan for the conseuences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long term trendsSmil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events both natural and human produced then at trends of global importance the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe Japan Russia China the United States and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social Vaclav Smil takes a detailed tour through all the different mechanisms by which we could find ourselves at the pointy end of a catastrophe over the coming fifty years What are really the odds and the likely conseuences of a large meteor hitting the earth a major pandemic in the face of growing ineffectiveness of antibiotics new conflicts sparked as the relative power balances worldwide markedly shift and of course from the effects of climate change?I like that Smil pointedly refuses to engage in the prediction game pointing out the immense complexity of overlapping systems and how this tends to render attempts to paint future scenarios hopelessly out of whack He highlights the real dangers that exist without hyperbole and also observes that through the complexity and global integration of modern societies can come both resilience and vulnerability This is the first book I've read of Smil's I came upon him via the Netflix special on Bill Gates since Smil is named as one of Gates' favourite authors Having read this one I can see why and will be looking forward to following up with some of his other works Highly recommended

book Û Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years Ë Vaclav Smil

Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty YearsIneuality He also considers environmental change in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom and gloom scenarios or techno euphoria Instead relying on long term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastroph Full of interesting data Written in about 2006 with a look forward of trends for the next 50 years Already ten years 20% in and interesting to see how his trends are holding up I would say they are holding up pretty good Still very well worth the read